Indonesia expects to produce less than 700 million tons of coal in 2026

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The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources recently projected that coal production in 2026 will be lower than the 2025 target of 735 million tons, mainly due to weakening demand in key export markets such as China and India.The government is fully evaluating production targets, but output is expected to fall below 700 million tons next year, the Director General of Mineral and Coal said.

Reasons for the decline in exports includeChina's own coal capacity boostresulting in reduced import demand. Although Indonesia has31 billion tons of reserves and 93 billion tons of resources, but 731 TP3T of low-calorie coal, only 51 TP3T of high-calorie coal, and 81 TP3T of medium-calorie coal, leaving Indonesia in theLack of competitiveness in the global high-calorie coal market. High-calorie coal mostly comes fromOlder mines that are difficult to mineand are mostly located in theforest reserveThe

Coal to date in 2025Actual production was lower than the same period last year, exports to China and India are expected to decline by 20-30 million tons. Indian demand is relatively stable, butChanges in the Chinese market have a significant impact on IndonesiaThe

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