The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources recently estimated that coal production in 2026 will be lower than the 2025 target of 735 million tons, mainly due to weakening demand from major export markets such as China and India. The Director General of Minerals and Coal stated that the government is comprehensively evaluating production targets, but output next year is expected to fall below 700 million tons.
Reasons for the export decline include China's own coal production capacity increase leading to reduced import demand. Although Indonesia has 31 billion tons of reserves and 93 billion tons of resources, 73% is low-calorie coal, only 5% is high-calorie coal, and medium-calorie coal accounts for 8%, making Indonesia less competitive in the global high-calorie coal market. High-calorie coal mostly comes from older mining areas that are difficult to exploit, and many are located in forest conservation areas.
So far in 2025, actual coal production is lower than the same period last year, and exports to China and India are expected to decrease by 20-30 million tons. Indian demand is relatively stable, but changes in the Chinese market have a significant impact on Indonesia.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources recently estimated that coal production in 2026 will be lower than the 2025 target of 735 million tons, mainly due to weakening demand from major export markets such as China and India. The Director General of Minerals and Coal stated that the government is comprehensively evaluating production targets, but output next year is expected to fall below 700 million tons.
Reasons for the export decline include China's own coal production capacity increase leading to reduced import demand. Although Indonesia has 31 billion tons of reserves and 93 billion tons of resources, 73% is low-calorie coal, only 5% is high-calorie coal, and medium-calorie coal accounts for 8%, making Indonesia less competitive in the global high-calorie coal market. High-calorie coal mostly comes from older mining areas that are difficult to exploit, and many are located in forest conservation areas.
So far in 2025, actual coal production is lower than the same period last year, and exports to China and India are expected to decrease by 20-30 million tons. Indian demand is relatively stable, but changes in the Chinese market have a significant impact on Indonesia.