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Indonesia fails to announce rules for nickel production cuts LME nickel price slumps nearly 8% in two days

印尼未公布镍减产细则LME镍价两日重挫近8%

Nickel prices have retreated from their 19-month highs due to theIndonesia fails to release details of nickel production cut plan that previously triggered a price spike.. The price of the three-month nickel contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 4.41 TP3T in January 14 trading, after surging to $18,800 per tonne (an intraday high since June 2024) in the previous session, after investors pushed the price sharply higher on bets about risks to production capacity in Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier.

Indonesia has previously hinted at plans to cut nickel production in 2026 to balance market supply and demand, but the country's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, in a Jan. 14 press releaseNo specific details of this year's nickel mining quota were announced, the minister said the relevant data is still in the final approval stage. As a key raw material for power batteries and stainless steel, nickel prices have risen nearly 30% since mid-December 2025, kicking off an uptrend alongside metals such as copper and aluminum. This round of metal price rise, thanks to Chinese traders' big buy, while geopolitical risks intensified also further fueled the upward trend.

Analysts at UOB Kay Hian Holdings noted that unless the production cut quota is substantially and consistently implemented, the nickel price trend will remain uncertain. He also mentioned that the short-term impact of the production cut program is limited, as most of the investment projects that have been agreed upon are likely to be exempted from the production cut restrictions in the next 1-2 years. As of 14:41 Jakarta time, nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange were at $17,895,000 per ton, down 3.4%, while copper prices were at $12,899,950 per ton, down 2.56%.

In line with the trend of nickel prices, copper prices also retreated from record highs, and other industrial metals fell in tandem, mainly traders in the previous period of rapid price increases after profit-taking. Futures contracts for copper, nickel, zinc and other varieties on the London Metal Exchange closed down more than 2%, giving back some of the gains of the past few weeks. Previously China's domestic metal market of large-scale capital inflows, had been the core driving force to push prices higher.

Although most traders and investors remain bullish on the long-term trend of copper and other metals, but the current round of rapid price rally also triggered the market alert, profit-taking may lead to a sharp price correction. Analysts at the Marks Group said the current general decline in the metals market is a typical performance of adjustment after excessive gains in the previous period, and base metals analysts are struggling to follow up on the recent round of surging prices. 2025 copper prices have accumulated a cumulative gain of more than 40%, the largest annual gain since 2009, and the reasons behind this include the production disruptions at a number of large-scale copper mines, as well as the efforts of traders to hedge potential tariff risks by sending metal stockpiles to the the U.S. to avoid potential tariff risks, and massive metal stockpile transfers by traders to the U.S.

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