Indonesia builds global green minerals supply chain

Smelters have become the new geopolitical arena in the global energy landscape of the transition to low carbon.The struggle for influence that used to revolve around oil and strategic straits has shifted to control of the purification process of key minerals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, which are core raw materials for electric cars, solar panels and the like. Countries with control over downstream processing are able to control prices, supply, set environmental standards, and take a strategic position in international negotiations.China dominates the competitive landscape of the global minerals supply chain through an integrated strategy of mining cobalt in the Congo and lithium in Chile and establishing large-scale processing centers, supported by low-cost government financing and technology subsidies.Currently controlling more than 70% of the world's battery-grade nickel supply, 80% of cobalt sulfate, and almost all of the synthetic graphite, it has a huge influence in global mineral pricing and green mineral standard-setting. The U.S. pushed for a supply chain reset through the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires electric vehicle components to be processed in specific regions or partner countries in order to qualify for subsidies; the EU passed theCritical Raw Materials Act", setting a domestic processing target of 40% by 2030 while limiting dependence on a single country to 65%; Japan, South Korea, Australia and others are also actively establishing new partnerships with Southern Hemisphere resource producers. Indonesia has spawned more than 50 purification facilities (e.g., RKEF and HPAL) since the implementation of a nickel export ban in 2020 (although it has been challenged at the WTO). Exports of processed nickel have soared from $2 billion to $34 billion in five years, and industrial zones such as Morowali and Wetar Bay have become symbols of success for the domestic downstream industry, creating more than 200,000 jobs and spurring the development of supporting industries such as logistics and finance. However, projects are dominated by Chinese investors, making Indonesia vulnerable to external dynamics; many smelters rely on coal-fired power generation, and their products may face carbon taxes or European Union green market access restrictions; and much of the production is stuck at the stage of intermediates such as iron-nickel, and has not yet been upgraded to higher-value-added products such as cathodes or battery cells.