Indonesia's surge in crude oil exports to China raises questions

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August 2025 Chinese customs data showed that Indonesia's crude oil exports to China soared to 2.7 million tons (about 630,000 bpd), far exceeding Indonesia's domestic production of 580,000 bpd and cumulative exports of 1.3 million tons in the January-July period, according to the record.The four tankers were engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer off Johor, Malaysia, after docking at a non-major oil port in Batam, and the change in draught indicated that the loads were not Indonesian crude oil.

At the same time, this "Indonesian crude oil" is 11 dollars per barrel lower than Saudi crude oil, in line with the characteristics of Iranian crude oil discount.China has not officially reported Iranian crude oil imports since mid-2022China's crude oil imports from Malaysia fell 30% over the same period.There is a proxy relationship with the surge in Indonesian data, and there is precedent for Iran circumventing U.S. sanctions through third-country transshipment.

Indonesia's Energy Ministry, Pertamina and Batam Port Authority have not responded, while China's Foreign Ministry and shipping companies have also remained silent.The incident highlights the complexity of the global energy "shadow trade", reflecting the adaptation of supply chains in a sanctions environment.

# Social Dynamics