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China's Energy Policy Adjustment Hits Indonesia's Coal Industry

中国能源政策调整冲击印尼煤炭产业

The Energy Transition Institute (ESI) has released a report stating that China's energy policy adjustments are putting structural pressure on Indonesia's coal industry.China has reduced its reliance on imported coal by increasing domestic coal production, optimizing energy logistics and accelerating the clean energy transition, while Indonesia's coal exports to China previously accounted for as much as 43%.

ESI's research director noted that this policy shiftNot short-term market volatility, but long-term structural risk.Increased efficiency and competitive pricing of local Chinese coal producers led to Indonesian coal exportsWeakening of the price advantage. In addition, China's 2024More than three-quarters of electricity demand growthFrom Clean Energy, further compressing Indonesia's coalmarket spaceThe

Indonesia faces a double challenge: on the one hand, it needs to deal with the Chinese marketshrinking demandresulting fromRevenue shocks(Coal contribution in 2023)Over 1,000 trillion rupiah in tax revenue); on the other hand, there is a need to work with ChinaCompetition in the efficient coal industryThe coal-producing regions' governments will be faced with the prospect of a major crisis if the decline in exports continues. If the export slump continues, governments in coal-producing regions will faceSignificant revenue declineThe

The report emphasizes that IndonesiaCrisis cannot be resolved only by adjusting production or opening up new marketsThe need to developLong-term strategies to transcend seasonal market fluctuationsin response to China's energy transitionimprintThe

 

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